The Research is in: Tactical Voting Works

“The Conservatives cannot win on a leave only platform”

The Conservatives cannot win an election by relying solely on supporters of Brexit, while Labour could get closer to its goal of majority government if it does more to peel off anti-Brexit voters who are still backing the Tories: these are two of the key conclusions of a new report we published on 24 October 2017.

The report – from independent data scientist Dr Abigail Lebrecht – shows that the Conservatives were successful in appealing for the votes of previous UKIP supporters and other leave voters but that was not enough to deliver victory in the face of a grassroots revolt by tactical voting supporters of remain.

Dr Lebrecht states that the evidence shows “the Conservatives cannot win on a leave only platform” and “we can say with some confidence that the grassroots anti-Brexit tactical vote denied Theresa May her majority.”

Her work shows that the Conservative’s vote rose in proportion to support for leave in each constituency but also fell in proportion to remain voters. Labour’s vote rose in proportion to the remain vote, but there was no clear relationship with leave votes.

In 2017, The Tories went for ‘peak Brexit’ and yet lost their majority – strongly suggesting that they cannot win by travelling further in that direction. Labour said little about Brexit during the campaign but were big beneficiaries of grassroots-organised tactical voting campaigns – including that organised by Best for Britain. B4B’s ‘tactical voting dashboard’ was visited over one million times during the course of the campaign – particularly in marginal constituencies.

Eloise Todd, CEO of Best for Britain, added:  “We did not issue a blanket call for Labour votes, but we did back Labour in many of the key marginals where Dr Lebrecht’s work suggests the outcome was determined by tactical, anti-Brexit, voting – such as Bristol North West and Kensington.

“We also endorsed Liberal Democrat and Plaid Cymru candidates in seats in which they were most likely to win and advised supporters where the Conservative candidate was likely oppose an extreme Brexit.

“The electorate has understood the power of their vote, the remain vote swung the 2017 election and both main parties will need to attract more of that floating vote if they want to get ahead and break the UK’s Brexit stalemate.”

To stay up-to-date on all of Best for Britain’s work don’t forget to follow us on Twitter and like us on Facebook.



Gina Miller on the importance of voting


Gina Miller: “How we voted almost a year ago is in a sense irrelevant as it is in the past.”

“There is no mandate for an extreme Brexit.”

“There needs to be parliamentary scrutiny.”

“Mrs May is putting political expediency before democracy.”

“Don’t turn your backs on democracy this June.”

Gina Miller speaking at the Convention.

Calling all young voters

A message from Another Europe is Possible:

Yes, that’s right. Labour aren’t just ahead of the Tories, they’re several points ahead – among younger voters.

Poll after poll tells us that under the age of 30 the Tories are hugely unpopular, with some polls even putting Labour on 50 per cent and the Greens doing really well too. 

If young people, and other under-represented demographics, register to vote and show up on June 8th, progressives of all stripes really can beat the Tories.

That’s where you come in. Don’t click away – do these 2 simple things now.

1. Share the register to vote link on Facebook – and post a positive message with it. It takes less than 5 minutes to register online, and you don’t need any documents.

2. Make sure you, your friends, your family and your colleagues are registered. The register link is here. Use every method of communication you can get hold of: from emails to doorknocking to social media. Send mass texts, speak to your friends and family, raise it awkwardly in the middle of pub conversations.

Labour figures call for candidates to step aside for Greens in two seats

Labour’s former policy chief has called on Jeremy Corbyn to stand down candidates in two key constituencies in order to help the Greens defeat the Conservatives and boost their hopes elsewhere.

Jon Cruddas has teamed up with MPs, including the former shadow cabinet member Clive Lewis, peers and campaigners such as Neal Lawson and Billy Bragg to issue the demand through a letter in the Guardian that warns of a looming “Tory landslide”.

But will Corbyn care? So far he seems to have done everything to make Theresa May’s life easier. Any thoughts?

For full article, click here.

The UK Government Is Completely Deluded About Brexit

If ever there was an article about Brexit that should ring alarm bells, this surely is it.

The UK’s eventual exit from the EU is looking more and more likely to be a train wreck. The Brexiteers in Prime Minister Theresa May’s administration are living in a fantasy world. And although May herself comes across as sensible and pragmatic, it now appears that she is as deluded as they are. Or is she being deliberately misinformed by her own Ministers?

Read the full article here:

While Labour sinks…

…the Lib Dems are surging ahead.

Things are looking brighter for the Lib Dems. Last year no party campaigned to remain in the European Union so vehemently. And now, none is likely to benefit so much from the vote to Leave.

The party’s noisy opposition to the government’s proposed “hard Brexit” has helped it to notch up some spectacular swings in council and parliamentary elections since the referendum (see chart). Meanwhile, it faces only weak competition for left-leaning voters from Labour, which is under catastrophically bad management.

So the Lib Dems are optimistic about their chances on June 8th. All 48 seats they lost in 2015 will be “in play”, reckons Rob Ford of the University of Manchester. A 10% swing to the Lib Dems would see them pick up 40 seats, 25 of them from the Conservatives. They are unlikely to do quite that well—partly because eight of those seats are held by the Scottish National Party, whose vote is likely to hold up, and partly because the Liberals’ organisation is still relatively weak after successive local electoral drubbings.

But Lib Dem watchers guess the party could pick up more than 20 new seats. Popular former MPs including Vince Cable, a former business secretary, and Simon Hughes, a former justice minister, have said they will seek to win back their old constituencies. Nick Clegg, a former party leader and deputy prime minister, has confirmed he will stand again.

Read full article in the Economist.

Labour = head in sand?

‪Brexit is an existential crisis for the UK – and Labour chose to totally ignore it as an issue?

Yes, totally ignore Brexit. No mention at all.

Now a leaked general election script for Labour MPs reveals that the party will direct its campaign focus to core issues including schools, social care and the NHS, rather than immigration, defence and Brexit. The document pledges help for NHS, schools and social care in contrast to Tory ‘privilege’ policies…

Sure, that is all good and fine. But that is like worrying about the safety of the kettle’s electrics – while the house is burning dow.

Read the full article on The Guardian.